The tide is turning

Just a few years ago, Britain was seen as perhaps one of the most stable countries in Europe. The Tory Party was regarded as the world’s most successful establishment party with a history going back generations. All that seems like ancient history today.   We have experienced one shock after another in recent years. The financial crash of 2008, a tidal wave of austerity, the Scottish independence referendum, the rise of the movement around Jeremy Corbyn, the Brexit Referendum, the prolonged agony of Theresa May, the 2019 election, the economic dislocation after Brexit, the Pandemic, the bumptious rise and the ignominious fall of Boris Johnson and now the cost of living crisis with spiralling energy and fuel costs, just at the point at which the British economy starts to slide into recession.

Apologies for using such a long sentence, but its important to draw out what has been a real catalogue of instability, economic shocks and political changes, For us in UNISON there has been a long period of holding the line against the threat of cuts, job losses and one service review after another. Wage freezes and below inflation pay rises have resulted in a steady decline in members living standards and many of the lowest paid members are far closer to the minimum wage than ever before.

Despite stunts such as Dave Prentis smashing up an ice sculpture to signify that the union would fight to smash the Tory wage freeze, its many years since there has been a real battle over pay. In part this reflected a reluctance to take on the Tories at the top of the union, but also, when inflation was low a reluctance from members to take action to secure an extra 1% or thereabouts.

Instability and uncertainty

Today however there is huge instability and uncertainty, spiralling fuel and energy costs are placing a huge burden on members and its going to get worse. All indications suggest that we face another massive hike in energy bills on the 1st October and support for a Don’t Pay campaign is growing rapidly. Across the private sector as well as the public sector there is a growing strike wave, generally around the question of pay, but also attacks on jobs, working practices and terms and conditions.

The most visible of these disputes have been the RMT strikes, with Mick Lynch and Eddie Dempsey handling the media extremely effectively and most significantly receiving massive public support. The RMT have been joined by ASLEF who have disputes with many of the train companies. Recently CWU members at BT took strike action for two days and plan two further days, while Post Office members have their fourth round of strikes scheduled for later in the month, when they will be joined by 115,000 Royal Mail staff. Meanwhile Unite members are involved in something like 300 separate disputes at the moment. Even the RCN is balloting for action.

The tide is turning

There is a sense that the movement is waking up after a long sleep. The tide is turning. Unlike the shock of the 2008 crash, members have been able to see the current cost of living crisis unfolding over a period of time. The political crisis around Boris Johnson illustrates the weakness of the Tories even with their 80 seat majority. There is a lot more activity in the Trade Union movement and most importantly strikes are being won.

For years the Tories have tried to shackle the unions with probably the most draconian anti union laws in Europe. In recent years they imposed new minimum thresholds for strike ballots in an attempt to place new barriers in the way of members seeking to take action. It is very significant that so many public sector strikes are taking place now, despite this. The movement has had to respond and as in so many cases in the past, whether over DOCAS or the Political Fund ballots the members have responded, with massive strike votes and high levels of participation in the ballots.

Members need to feel they can win

But you can’t turn the members on and off like a tap. Members need to feel that they can win. All the more significant then that this summer there are so many disputes taking place. This is bound to have an affect on members, but also on the active layers of the unions. It’s worth remembering also that while things may have been relatively quiet on the industrial front over the years, there has been an accumulation of pressure on members, with higher workloads, speed ups and the steady erosion of wages.

This is one of the main reasons behind the election of Sharon Graham in Unite, but also the success of Time for Real Change ourselves in the UNISON NEC elections and Paul Holmes General Secretary campaign in 2020. Now however, that pressure has the potential to be released. Just look at the Scottish NHS Pay Ballot Results:

• GMB 97% Reject

• Royal College of Midwives Almost 90% Reject

• Unite 89% Reject

• Royal College of Nursing 90% Reject

• UNISON 91% Reject

Very significantly, groups that were seen as reluctant to take action, such as the RCN and the Midwives are registering comparable votes to the GMB, Unite and UNISON ourselves. This means that there is everything to play for in the current round of pay campaigns.

In Local Government It seems evident that the Employers in England and Wales have sought to present an offer that they feel they can sell to the unions. However, no sooner was the ink dry on the offer which represents a flat rate of roughly £1 an hour, than reports began to suggest that inflation may reach 13% later this year. This means that even the offer of just over 10% to the lowest paid members is a significant pay cut, just when energy prices are set to shoot up once again. The energy price cap alone is anticipated to rise by 70% which for an average family is some £1,379 per year. If you deduct that from the £1925 that has been offered to full time workers, it leaves very little.  Of course, the pay offer in Health is for even less.

Return to the 1970’s?

These are the factors that are generating such big opposition from members. They are also the factors that are behind the Tories introducing even more anti trade union laws, such as allowing employers to take on scab agency workers during a strike, and their threat to introduce minimum service levels on the railways. The Tories and their allies in the press talk about a return to the 1970’s. Of course that would be a great victory. Nationalised Rail Services, Utilities, and a huge reduction in privatised services with their attendant poor wages and conditions. These are exactly the sort of issues that the unions and the Labour Party should be campaigning for.

There are growing calls for coordinated action over pay, with other unions and across different sectors. As the cost of living spirals out of control, these calls are only likely to become louder. Meanwhile more and more groups of workers will find themselves being forced to stand up and fight to defend their living standards. Against a weak and divided government, facing a potentially deep recession and divided over their economic policy, there is every chance that we can win. As one Tory MP put it the government are walking a fine line on pay. There is a possibility that the inept and divided Tory leadership could blunder into a generalised confrontation with the unions over the cost of living crisis. We need to be prepared for that possibility.

As Eddie Dempsey of the RMT eloquently put it:

“There isn’t a train that moves in this country, not a bin gets emptied or a shelf stacked without the kind permission of the working class.”